History warns us. The question is whether we listen.

Does history warn? It’s hard to believe it doesn’t, certainly on a world scale. How many “endless wars” does it take to warn powers with overwhelming military resources that attacking smaller, backward, “helpless” nations might not work? After Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, wouldn’t the United States listen to history and think through some basic logistics before attacking Iran?

Of course, we got through Trump’s first term, but kind of overlooked the flashing neon warnings in that history and elected him again.

On an individual level, can history alert to danger? Think about someone in the stock market. Many buy and sell millions, succeed or lose millions based on graphs of the past and/or memories of market performance.

And if you have to walk down a certain street every day to get to school, and 3 out of the 5 times a week a bunch of guys beat you up for the fun of it, that short history warns you to find another route to school.

But what if there’s no history to study? What if early Vietnam is a first try at limited warfare, almost an experiment? What if Trump wins the presidency, surrounding himself with grown-up, accomplished advisers, allowing conservative hope to rise and even voters beyond his base to believe in him? What if an IPO comes on the market, a hot company going public with few proven results but with a sexy idea? (WeWork did an IPO in 2019 and everyone bought in, raising the company’s worth to $47 billion, then lost it all and filed for bankruptcy 2 years later – yes, a historical warning!) Without history’s warnings, potential disaster awaits.

Alice Jones had little history to prepare her for the viciousness of her enemies nor for the bigotry inflicted on her only after she was sued. But Leonard Rhinelander had family history that warned him of the violent extremes of which his family was capable. He reacted to this warning and tried to protect Alice in the trial that almost destroyed them both.